The advertisements announcing the start of the municipal election have appeared. It set me thinking. Before the race is on let me state that there isn't a politician in existence that does not constantly think of re-election, and I can tell you that all our sitting politicians have already weighed their chances for re-election this year. I will try to tap into those thoughtwaves and prognosticate (I still think that is legal in Ontario!).
Northumberland has plenty of political candidates, the problem is that there will be too few seats available. In the West, Hope and Port Hope are scheduled to lose five politicians as they reduce from twelve to five; three from Hope three from Port Hope and a Mayor. Presumably there are five politicians who would not want to run again so there is a good chance that incumbents would make up the new Council. The mystery here is figuring out the enigmatic Ian Angus. Does he want to be Mayor, Mayor of the County or a Federal MP or a Provincial MPP? Your guess is good as mine although one of the juiciest rumours I heard before Christmas was that he was thinking about the Federal Liberal nomination path. I guess he can only slag local conservative reformer Doug Galt for so long before he isn't welcome in his own party. But time will tell and Ian won't. If Ian decides to stay in the Town/Township expect a clash of Titans! Smith vs Angus.
In Cobourg things have been complicated by Mayor Chalovich's lust for a third term. Many can recall her telling "her boys" that she would only run for two terms. I now hear strong tales to the contrary but she will not say. That poses a problem for the "heir apparent" (in his own mind) Mr McCurdy. He would like to remove the title of "Deputy" from his present position (Deputy Mayor) but I find it ironic that such an opponent of unions would use seniority as the main qualification for such a move. Besides, if there was no race where would the most popular councilor for two terms, Bob Spooner, fit? In the absence of an indication from the Mayor expect the knives to come out pretty soon as councilors try to establish a public presence. Although I will wonder about the wisdom of any incumbents who try to run on their records!
However all present positioning will be redundant if amalgamation takes place. In a new scenario Cobourg will only elect three politicians. In that case expect crowded ballots and many new candidates, for those ward positions. I hear many would be candidates are looking forward to restructuring to solve our leadership problem. One thing I have heard lately is a steady stream of comments expressing boredom, amusement and other terms of disregard for this Cobourg Council: the electorate expected more two years ago. So unless there is amalgamation expect a low turnout in the absence of inspiring leaders and candidates.
It is a custom of aspiring candidates to spend a lot of time writing to the papers about anything and usually making a name for themselves. Looking for those signs it seems that we only have a former Port Hope politician who now lives in Cobourg performing this way. John Floyd still remains John, but will it play in Cobourg?
My personal view. OK you asked for it! The Minister of Municipal Affairs will listen to the business lobby, and Doug Galt, and declare Northumberland to be mixed up, confused and not doing enough to restructure and impose a commissioner by the end of March. With a mandate to produce a report by the end of May and elections for the new municipality of West Northumberland in November. In that case expect party politics to enter the race for Mayor and look for a Council of 11. Also look for a fine race for the three Cobourg Councilors. Expect new faces: all the incumbents can be taken.