The politics of growth
At the Mayor's breakfast the other day Director of Planning, Glenn McGlashon, told the assembly that under the provincial growth Plan Cobourg will be getting 30% of the total. That policy limits growth to designated areas and slower growth to the rest. Obviously Northumberland County, which is a rural rump, in the eyes of the Province, is not a high priority and has been allocated 12,000 new residents and 3,000 jobs between 20007 and 2031. Break that down to a yearly basis and you see just how stupid these bureaucrats are. Cobourg, according to the pointy-heads in QP will be allowed to grow by 3600 people and 900 jobs in the next twenty years. Cobourg's optimistic dreams, developed by consultants, have projected 9,300 people and 2,300 jobs for the same time period. Joining Council many years ago I was told by "housing guru" Don Kirkup, "Cobourg has historically built 175 houses a year." And that has not changed one iota over the past fifteen years, despite bursts of activity in the housing sector. SO, multiply that projection by twenty years and then add in 2.2 persons per house a realistic population projection will emerge - 7700 - the number of estimated jobs is unknown to me but the Cobourg Development people will tell you that there is a slight climb each year. We now know that the population will grow but who's numbers are correct and why do they matter?
Growth is a municipal phallic symbol. The more a Town grows the better the leaders feel and their positions of local pride are justified. Never mind that houses are taking over green fields, never mind that taxpayers money is subsidising the builders activities - just build the damn houses and we'll all feel better! But there is a downside and that is the evergrowing need for taxpayers money to subsidise the results of that building. Roads have to be plowed, Sewage plants have to be expanded, (even though the County Study has shown that Northumberland has more capacity than demand), and more residents expect services that will to expand to accommodate them, witness the demand for more space at the Seniors Centre.
But back to the political dispute between the County and the municipalities and the hard place that the province has placed Northumberland County in. Northumberland County is only one of two Counties that does not have an Official Plan. So why should the Province waste much time and effort in Growth policies in Counties that have no structure to handle Growth? Secondly, like little feuding Emirates, the seven Municipalities all want the same thing - a disproportionate slice of the pie. The rurals don't want the urbans to get the growth and the urbans feel entitled to get it.
Finally it appears that the Provincial Statement has no teeth, as a local developer told me yesterday, "If the Town has the capacity to accept growth and the builder wants to put his money in who's to stop him?" Good question, no answer.
Morning relief - check out this collections of pics, titled "The ten worst losers in sport" here
Good? news for the local real estate
industry. Dave Chomitz has posted the April stats here but for those who like pics here is the visual stat. Click on the image for a larger size.
Growth is a municipal phallic symbol. The more a Town grows the better the leaders feel and their positions of local pride are justified. Never mind that houses are taking over green fields, never mind that taxpayers money is subsidising the builders activities - just build the damn houses and we'll all feel better! But there is a downside and that is the evergrowing need for taxpayers money to subsidise the results of that building. Roads have to be plowed, Sewage plants have to be expanded, (even though the County Study has shown that Northumberland has more capacity than demand), and more residents expect services that will to expand to accommodate them, witness the demand for more space at the Seniors Centre.
But back to the political dispute between the County and the municipalities and the hard place that the province has placed Northumberland County in. Northumberland County is only one of two Counties that does not have an Official Plan. So why should the Province waste much time and effort in Growth policies in Counties that have no structure to handle Growth? Secondly, like little feuding Emirates, the seven Municipalities all want the same thing - a disproportionate slice of the pie. The rurals don't want the urbans to get the growth and the urbans feel entitled to get it.
Finally it appears that the Provincial Statement has no teeth, as a local developer told me yesterday, "If the Town has the capacity to accept growth and the builder wants to put his money in who's to stop him?" Good question, no answer.
Morning relief - check out this collections of pics, titled "The ten worst losers in sport" here
Good? news for the local real estate
industry. Dave Chomitz has posted the April stats here but for those who like pics here is the visual stat. Click on the image for a larger size.
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