A stratagem of confusion
As of 7am this morning this was the logo displayed on Kim Rudd's website. Contacting a member of the team I was told that this was the number of "new supporters" that Kim has signed up. But is it real or is it just a strategy designed to scare off the other sides? Apparently this kind of thing hasn't been done before as it could be dangerous if expectations are unmet and also because it may tip off the others, there are only so many "new supporters" around and everyone is chasing them.At the beginning of the campaign, so I have been told, the Riding membership was at about 1400. Now how many of the 1400 were paid-up and how many were lapsed but still on the rolls is unknown to us, but I know from other political parties members are kept on the lists for at least four years before being removed. So to say we have 1400 members may only be half true. But back to the "New supporters" (NS) and that definition. We can assume that a paid up member is an "old supporter" therefore new signups are NS, but lapsed members are also counted as NS. Do we count commitments made by people contacted on the phone or people being spoken to at wine and cheese parties as NS? And really how much do we want to tell the other side? Only a truly naive campaign would give away its numbers before the nomination meeting! An experienced campaign team would want to come into a nomination with a hundred or so signed memberships not previously declared. At the last big Liberal nomination nobody divulged numbers and so it wasn't until the day of the meeting anybody knew what anybody else had.
But back to the present. If one assumes (very dangerous) that about a thousand people will turn up to vote the winner would need would need about 600 signed members to feel confident. Kim Rudd is at 241 new ones, some old ones and a long way to go for the 600.
Still on Liberal affairs. A comment came in last night and was buried about three pages down so I copied it and repeat it here because it is timely
"It is about a week into the campaign for Chris Herrington and I hear that the memberships are rolling in across the riding. People know a winner and she has won as a councillor and twice as mayor...the other two have NO political experience at all!
Fancy brochures and get-to-gethers with out of area props should be easily seen as a weak way of saying I have the local Liberal support"
I was sent the Herrington website URL "www.chrisherrington.ca", a couple of days back and posted it, and an email was sent asking for a list of events that CH was planning - yet to hear anything back. So if anybody on the CH team reads this we would like to know what you are up to apart from a flashy website!
13 comments:
Hmmmm ... an alleged 264 new supporters for Kim in a nomination race; an 11,000 vote deficit to overcome in the next election. Seems like chump change to me.
The Libs are hurting themselves badly by having this "competition" to see who gets to challenge Rick Norlock. Kim Rudd believes she has enough support in the Cobourg/Port Hope area to swing both elections; Chris Herrington has no doubt been convinced by slippery Lou Rinaldi that she could represent NQW, from Brighton, as the new MP, but really has no presence in the west end of the riding; and newcomer Andrew McFadyen is coming off as arrogant and cocky by forming a campaign team of relatively younger unknowns ... Macklin and Stewart excepted ... and giving long-winded speeches just to let the converted know that he's there.
Regardless of which one of these dreamers gets the local federal Liberal nod, Rick Norlock will be reelected ... whenever the election is called ... by a very wide margin again.
If the NQW Liberals had any sense at all of what is really needed here, they would have begun grooming a younger female candidate immediately after Macklin's defeat in January 2006. Instead, they continued to support a very nice person and let Paul run again, with disastrous results. Now they are scrambling to find the "right" replacement, and sending very negative messages to the community in the process. Nothing will change with the local Liberal Party until the old guard is completely replaced by a younger cadre of leaders, and the current crop is doing practically nothing to recruit people under the age of 30.
The problem is, Norlock won't be re-elected on his merit (of which he has little), but simply because the Liberals continue to be a mess.
Your comment from the Herrington Camp is an obvious plant. Regardless, it does merit comment. Herrington came into this race at the last possible moment, joined the Liberal party only a few days before she joined the race, and waited a full week (or more) to even launch her website. She's released no policy, held no events, and hasn't done anything for the Liberal family...ever. Political experience can be seen as political opportunism here.
McFadyen and Rudd have been at this for a while. And yes, McFadyen is putting out fancy brochures. However, they are filled with policy and the initiatives he hopes to undertake if he becomes the candidate.
Finally, the comment from "Anonymous" above, forming a campaign team isn't arrogant or cocky. All three camps have campaign teams. This is a nomination CAMPAIGN afterall.
Nick Norlock is AGAINST gay marriage. It is an insult to our riding and our country that he was ever elected. I truly hope this riding comes to their senses and removes him from office. I do not care if it is a Conservative or a Liberal that is elected, but I think it is horrifying to be represented by someone that is against such a basic human right. Everyone in this country is a human being and deserves to be treated as such, regardless of colour, race, culture, origin, sexual identity, ability or income.
I am assuming that all three Liberal candidates support gay marriage, so please let me know if that is not the case. I know that Stewart did not, so I assume that is what anonymous was referring to in the comment on the last post.
It's a new generation folks and racism and homophobia are no longer tolerated. There are a large group of us that are well under 60 and quite involved in this nomination process. We have no need to go to silly wine and cheeses - we cast our votes and then write a cheque if our candidate wins.
McFadyen is grossly underqualified and his arrogance is offputting. Christine Stewart on his side isn't all that exciting as far as I am concerned. She had lost a lot of supporters while she was still in office.
I've heard rumblings that the Liberal leadership is pulling hard for female MP's, so Herrington and Rudd are probably Ignatieff's preference. I would really like to know who's side Macklin is on. He is a stand up guy and that would carry a lot of weight for me.
It has to come down to who has the best shot at unseating Norlock. Do any of the candidates appeal to Conservatives?
Kims new logo is as ordinary and boring as the one she saddled the Chamber of Commerce with....
Judging from comments to recent posts, these seem to be the burning issues for Liberal candidates: are you young? are you on Facebook? is your logo hot?
And the winner will follow the Liberal leader to the promised land of, "Yes, we can--but what?"
It's starting to look like gay marriage is an issue for local Liberal candidates along with their facebook presence.
My mother, a lifelong tory, used to complain that all the Catholics (along with all the immigrants) were liberals. If that worn old stereotype holds true, I can see how gay rights would be a hot button issue for any liberal candidate in this riding at this time. Could get interesting!
Maybe if you checked the upcoming events link on the Herrington site as I did, you would know what is going on!
I will be at the Wine & Cheese Event on August 13th to hear what Chris Herrington has to offer. I expect many Liberals will come out since this is the first of many planned events according to her site.
Thank you for kind comment, the event was not on the board when the post was written late Monday evening but now that you have so tactfully pointed it out it is on the schedule and has been since yesterday morning
ben
Note to the anon. poster who chided BB for not monitoring Herrington's web site 24/7:
It is extremely (a) short sighted and (b) stupid to alienate the media, even when it's only a minor alternative blog! Whether the item was posted by a Herrington operative or just some supporter, it does not bode well for the candidate.
Bad enough she thinks support from Peter the Putz Delanty is going to help her campaign. Yeah, help her right into the toilet.
According to the results of the last municipal election, "peter the putz" is quite popular among the madding crowd. If that still holds, then his official endorsement has value, especially if she wins the nomination.
As far as experience goes, that often means that one has learned to 'play the game' of staying in power as opposed to learned and acted on doing the right things on behalf of everyone, not just supporters.
Delanty might have done well in the Cobourg election, but what about voters from the eastern end of the riding?
The country folk down in those parts aren't likely as fond of that pseudo leader as the witless urbanites in the western end who keep voting for him.
And who the heck in Trenton has heard of Delanty? He hasn't exactly distinguished himself with any actual achievements unless you count Peter's Piddle and Rink.
Have you forgotten about his "cycling achievements' on the 'waterfront trail' sideshow with his little buddy the DM in tow, and so soon too? Or his outstanding contribution to the 'Mayors of the Great Lakes Committee'? Or his active participation in the Mayor's Cup race at the Brighton Speedway? Lot's of face time down east - C'mon, that man's a human dynamo! They should be able to figure out who he is eventually, right?
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