We now have two official candidates
10 Sept 1135pm
Kim Rudd wins but it took two ballots to show that she fell far short of her target of 700. 50% + 1 of 922 is 461. The shortfall was 9 or 15 (depends on who is telling the story) votes on the first round and not knowing the numbers yet we can only guess at the second round surge of Herrington and speculate why it did not succeed. When asked by the media why numbers were not being announced, one senior scrutineer in the Rudd camp told me "We don't release the numbers as it would be unfair to the losers, we have a winning candidate and thet's what matters."
I am sure that the numbers will dribble out to selected outlets as they were no secret I even saw a vote tally, on the back of an envelope being dissected by a former mayor Cobourg, and others, as I left the room. SO maybe by the morning this will be known
10 Sept 1045pm
OK here is the first break in secrecy the final count for Rudd was 519 - 56.29% - hardly a landslide!
More in tomorrow's edition
Kim Rudd wins but it took two ballots to show that she fell far short of her target of 700. 50% + 1 of 922 is 461. The shortfall was 9 or 15 (depends on who is telling the story) votes on the first round and not knowing the numbers yet we can only guess at the second round surge of Herrington and speculate why it did not succeed. When asked by the media why numbers were not being announced, one senior scrutineer in the Rudd camp told me "We don't release the numbers as it would be unfair to the losers, we have a winning candidate and thet's what matters."
I am sure that the numbers will dribble out to selected outlets as they were no secret I even saw a vote tally, on the back of an envelope being dissected by a former mayor Cobourg, and others, as I left the room. SO maybe by the morning this will be known
10 Sept 1045pm
OK here is the first break in secrecy the final count for Rudd was 519 - 56.29% - hardly a landslide!
More in tomorrow's edition
10 comments:
It was 9 votes short of first ballot support.
Shamwow !
9 or 15 votes short of first count win sure sounds like a landslide to me. It's been awhile since I've calculated a stats breakdown, but it doesn't take a math genius to figure out those numbers... over 400 votes of just over 900 cast ... the rest being divided between the other two ... yep, a landslide.
Yep a Tony Clement landslide!!
I'm just glad the android didn't win.
Tony Clement landslide? Really?
Here is the best way to do the math.
Take all of Chris Herrington's votes, and all of Andrew McFadyen's votes and add the two of them together. Subtract 8 votes. That's how much Kim Rudd lost the first ballot on. She was 8 votes shy of the 50%, out of 950 or so votes cast.
On the second ballot she received a far majority of Andrew McFadyen's second ballot choices.
Sure, the 8 votes she didn't have on the first ballot means that it was 8 votes for being definitive of a victory for you ... but facts are facts.
Especially since Paul Macklin in 2000 won by under 15 votes on more ballots than two.
This nomination? Landslide.
from wikipedia: "In general, any British general election which results in a majority of over 100 seats tends to be described as a landslide."
630 odd seats in the BP means that 100 over the majority is a 75% vistory.
In Rudd's case she underachieved by 9 votes the other 470 votes were divided according to 2nd choice of McFadyen's ballots. Of the 470 she gained only another 56 to bring her to a final count of 519. 56 out of the available 463 added to her first ballot is not a landslide just 56%.
This is a nomination, Ben. Look historically at nominations in this area, by comparison to those this nomination was far more decisive than those.
Lets agree to disagree, because no matter what way we look at it - nearly 1000 came out and Kim Rudd won. Far more than the almost 50 that showed to the Con AGM and what I expect to be an NDP acclimation. Without Russ the NDP will lose a lot of support, he was an amazing candidate. Moreover, without a contested race the local NDP will lose out on a great chance to build support.
We may disagree on the interpretation of numbers but let us agree on one thing, an old, but true political theme - The local candidate is only worth about 5% of the vote. Even Obama couldn't beat the numbers that Norlock has.
ben
All national campaign, entirely. Agreed. Where the government goes so will this riding. A strongly run liberal campaign from the centre combined with a strong local election day machine is what the Liberal's need to win here.
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