A stratagem of confusion
As of 7am this morning this was the logo displayed on Kim Rudd's website. Contacting a member of the team I was told that this was the number of "new supporters" that Kim has signed up. But is it real or is it just a strategy designed to scare off the other sides? Apparently this kind of thing hasn't been done before as it could be dangerous if expectations are unmet and also because it may tip off the others, there are only so many "new supporters" around and everyone is chasing them.At the beginning of the campaign, so I have been told, the Riding membership was at about 1400. Now how many of the 1400 were paid-up and how many were lapsed but still on the rolls is unknown to us, but I know from other political parties members are kept on the lists for at least four years before being removed. So to say we have 1400 members may only be half true. But back to the "New supporters" (NS) and that definition. We can assume that a paid up member is an "old supporter" therefore new signups are NS, but lapsed members are also counted as NS. Do we count commitments made by people contacted on the phone or people being spoken to at wine and cheese parties as NS? And really how much do we want to tell the other side? Only a truly naive campaign would give away its numbers before the nomination meeting! An experienced campaign team would want to come into a nomination with a hundred or so signed memberships not previously declared. At the last big Liberal nomination nobody divulged numbers and so it wasn't until the day of the meeting anybody knew what anybody else had.
But back to the present. If one assumes (very dangerous) that about a thousand people will turn up to vote the winner would need would need about 600 signed members to feel confident. Kim Rudd is at 241 new ones, some old ones and a long way to go for the 600.
Still on Liberal affairs. A comment came in last night and was buried about three pages down so I copied it and repeat it here because it is timely
"It is about a week into the campaign for Chris Herrington and I hear that the memberships are rolling in across the riding. People know a winner and she has won as a councillor and twice as mayor...the other two have NO political experience at all!
Fancy brochures and get-to-gethers with out of area props should be easily seen as a weak way of saying I have the local Liberal support"
I was sent the Herrington website URL "www.chrisherrington.ca", a couple of days back and posted it, and an email was sent asking for a list of events that CH was planning - yet to hear anything back. So if anybody on the CH team reads this we would like to know what you are up to apart from a flashy website!










