Kim Rudd, for those of you who do not know is the nominated Federal Candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada in the next election. I bet she will be pumped by the news that the incumbent MP – a Conservative placeholder who after a couple of terms has moved off the backbench to the middle – has decided to cash in another pension and go back to the Hills of Warkworth to pursue “family things” and good works.
Before the brickbats fly let us congratulate Mr Norlock for his devotion to the position of our Member of Parliament. A selfless job that requires many hours away from the family and he has done it well. Conducting Passport Clinics and handing out cheques for all kinds of government programmes he has done what the average Joe expects from the MP of any party – he has brought home the bacon!
However as an enthusiastic member of the “Harper Team” he has also represented the most obnoxious team of ne’er-do-wells that holds power for the present time. If you want accolades for Mr Norlock go to the site run by John Draper, a member of the local CPC executive and who provides very good and fast local news – “Cobourg News”. A post appeared last night that announced Mr Norlock’s decision and was soon picked by local tweats and blogs; read it here. One interesting snippet came in the last line of the article, “Stay tuned for updates on who will be the Conservative Candidates – early indications are that there will be some surprises.”
With such a large landmass in the new Riding of “Northumberland, Peterborough South” we wonder just who the surprises are and will Cobourg continue to be the centre of the Conservative world in NPS? No doubt the local pundits will be abuzz but frankly anybody who defends this Conservative Party, let alone admits that they would like to carry the flag will definitely be in the minority around here.
SO how will Mr Norlock’s successor perform? As we know the only poll that counts is the one on election day and we do know that Liberals defeat themselves by staying away from the polls rather than switching votes so will the missing Liberal votes come back to push Ms Rudd into parliament? The best analysis of past electoral results came from a comment in the BR dated May 3rd 2011 submitted by someone called “One More Weighty”
In Northumberland Quinte West and before 2004 the previous riding called Northumberland:
The Conservative’s arc for share of the votes cast has been 2004 39% -> 2006 41% -> 2008 49% -> 2011 54%. Prior to that that vote was split either Canadian Alliance / PC or Reform / PC for 3 elections. Combine those 2 votes to get a comparison 1993 47% -> 1997 48% <- 2000 46%.
The Liberal arc has gone in the opposite direction 1993 50% <- 1997 47% <- 2000 46% <- 2004 40% <- 2006 36% <- 2008 29% <- 2011 21%
Yesterday Russ got his highest vote in 4 runs. Also the highest NDP vote ever. His previous best was 2006 = 11,334 (18%) in 2011 = 12,656 (21%)
Rick Norlock’s 54% of the vote is the best any candidate from any party has done here in 27 years. Since Conservative George Hees in 1984.
Yesterday in Northumberland Quinte West
* Conservative Rick Norlock 32,853 (54%)
Liberal Kim Rudd 12,792 (21%)
NDP Russ Christianson 12,656 (21%)
Green Ralph Torrie 2,796 (5%)
Voter turnout: 64.5% up 2.7%
Past results to compare yesterday to other elections here.
* is the winner.
* Conservative Rick Norlock 27,615 (49%)
Liberal Paul Macklin 16,209 (29%)
NDP Russ Christianson 8,2306 (15%)
Green Ralph Torrie 4,633 (8%)
Voter turnout: 61.8%
* Conservative Rick Norlock 25,833 (41%)
Liberal Paul Macklin 22,566 (36%)
NDP Russ Christianson 11,334 (18%)
Green Pat Lawson 2,946 (5%)
Conservative Doug Galt 22,676 (39%)
* Liberal Paul Macklin 22,989 (40%)
NDP Russ Christianson 9,007 (16%)
Green Steven Haylestrom 3,016 (5%)
Canadian Alliance Rick Norlock 11,410 (26%)
PC Ralph Zarboni’s 8,768 (20%)
* Liberal Paul Macklin 20,109 (46%)
NDP Ben Burd 2,141 (5%)
Green Tom Lawson 1,102 (3%)
With 20,178 votes (46%) Canadian Alliance combined with PC would’ve won
PC Ralph Zarboni 11,458 (25%)
Reform Al Matthews’ 10,602 (23%)
* Liberal Christine Stewart 21,609 (47%)
NDP Murray Weppler 2,678 (6%)
With 22,060 votes (48%) PC combined with Reform would’ve won
Reform Gord Johnston 11,552 (25%)
PC Reg Jewell 10,147 (22%)
*Liberal Christine Stewart 23,609 (50%)
NDP Diana Stewart 1,791 (4%)
With 21,699 votes (47%) Reform combined with PC would NOT have won
Conservative Reg Jewell 18,571 (43%)
*Liberal Christine Stewart 18,600 (43%)
NDP Gord Barnes 6,498 (15%)
* Conservative George Hees 24,060 (63%)
Liberal John Hill 9,534 (25%)
NDP Bill Cassells 4,633 (12%)
The riding boundaries have changed 5 or 6 times over the decades. Taking the riding that had most of the same population centres as Northumberland Quinte West does now – before 1984 Conservatives won 12 elections here and Liberals won 7.
We do not make predictions here but we will say that if the Libs keep their upward trend and with the local Cons and NDP fielding people with less name recognition that Kim Rudd, on her second time around, this Riding has a chance of going red.